Executive summary
- A new world order is emerging with increased push-backs against globalisation, and a greater focus on self-interest.
- Sentiment has dipped. Investors are concerned that the US administration is dispensing the wrong medicine to a healthy patient.
- Loss financial wealth is a key signpost for a US recession. Policymakers’ actions from here may have a strong impact on the length and magnitude of any subsequent recovery.
- We are in a ‘Late Cycle’. Leading equity markets that have seen exceptionally strong returns since 2023 may ease, while laggards may catch-up.
- What remains unchanged is that the most productive countries selling the goods and services the world wants (despite trade barriers), can still perform well.
- Trade deals, market power, and stimulus propensity would be key factors to watch that may create alpha opportunities.
Our Q2 2025 investment views in a nutshell: hear from our Head of Investment Strategy
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